It’s not the voting that’s democracy; it’s
the counting. ~ Tom Stoppard
Breathe a sigh of relief, it’s almost over. There are only two days
left before this year’s election; can you count that low?
Seemingly forever, the media have been flooding us with a tsunami
of election ads and information, including wayward stories about what young
teenage girls’
views are of the election and the candidates. Really? I feel a deep sense of
relief that November 8 is almost upon us. Despite feeling this bit of relief
from “the election cycle” almost reaching its proverbial high noon, the anxiety
accompanying the result more than whelms my passing feelings of reprieve.
And it’s not just me. Therapists across the country have reported a
growing number of people seeking assistance from election-induced fatigue and
trauma syndrome (EIFTS). I suggest you take this handy, insightful and quick quiz to
determine if you’re suffering from EIFTS. Should your quiz score indicate you qualify
for EIFTS assistance, don’t forget to thank Wolf Blitzer, Rachel Maddow and
Bill O’Reilly, along with The Donald and Hillary, among others.
More seriously, probably the most crucial challenge facing every
politician in every election, including this one, is voter turnout. Getting
people to actually vote, and vote for you,
is of ultimate, prime importance. At this point the candidates and their
surrogates still remain busy hoarsely making public speeches. Like Donald Trump’s
mystifying decision to speechify in Albuquerque, New Mexico last week, a
solidly-blue
state this time around. But beneath the lecterns, their campaigns are franticly
focused on nudging and cajoling likely voters to the polls. Far more concerning
are some nativist Republican Trumpophiles who are erecting deceitful barriers
to reduce or eliminate likely Democrat voters from casting ballots. Perhaps we
should send them to jail.
It’s been a while since US voters have been so unexcited about
casting ballots in a presidential election. What happened to Hope? In 2012’s
presidential election just under 219 million people, accounting for 57.5% of
eligible voters, cast their ballots, down from 62.3% in 2008. This modest voter
participation/turnout rate ranks the US 31st out of the 35 developed
democracies comprising the OECD.
The chart below illustrates the participation by voters’
racial/ethnic characteristics in the past 4 presidential elections. As shown,
white and black voters participate more by a noteworthy margin over Hispanics
and Asians. Despite significant efforts, getting Hispanics and Asians to
actually vote has long been a dispiriting quandary. Hopefully the Democrats’
efforts over the past several weeks will be more successful this time.
Since 2000, a maximum of just 49% (in 2008) of Hispanics voted in
any presidential election. In contrast, 66% of eligible black voters and 65% of
eligible white voters on average participated in the past two presidential
elections. Uniquely among the four racial/ethnic groupings shown in the chart,
black voters have increased their voter participation consistently since 2000.
Percent of eligible electors who voted in presidential elections,
2000-2012
Source: New York Times
The relatively small voter participation rate for Hispanics is a
particular challenge for Hillary Clinton, because they represent a growing,
core constituency for Democrats.
Another constituency that has been targeted by Sec. Clinton’s
campaign is millennials, who like Hispanics have a diminutive record of voting.
In two of the media-designated “most important” swing states - North Carolina
and Florida – less than one in five millennials voted in this year’s primaries;
15% in Florida, 18% in North Carolina. Hopefully far more millennials will vote
rationally on Tuesday.
These disparities in voting participation exist in non-swing
states as well. In California, an overwhelmingly blue state, only 17% of eligible
Hispanics and Asians voted in the 2014 election. In that year, the California
voting electorate was 60% whites and 18% Hispanics, which is far different
than the state’s overall demographics. Actual
California population demographics are 38% whites and 37.6% Hispanics.
Another important constituency for Sec. Clinton and Democrats has
become educated voters. For once the Democrats have an advantage over
Republicans. Because the more educated a person is, the more likely she/he will
vote, and vote Democratic. According to the Census Bureau’s Current Population
Survey (CPS) and the United States Elections Project, 54.9% of all voters nationally in the 2012
election were 60 years or older; just 16.3% were young people aged 18 to 29
years. From CPS data only 17.6% of people with less than a high-school degree
voted in the 2012 election and just 29% of high-school graduates voted. In
contrast, 59.9% of folks who have an advanced degree turned out to vote in 2012.
Finally there is the gender distinction between voters. In every
presidential election since 1980 more women have voted than men. For our last
national election in 2012 63.7% of women reported
voting versus 59.8% of men. This translates into almost 10 million more women
voters than men.
So who are the most reliable voters; voters that need the fewest
nudges to get into the voting booth? Simply stated, the most dependable voters
are female, older and more educated folks.
The above-cited voter turnout data illustrate why Democrats need larger and more effective get-out-the-voter efforts than Republicans.
With the exception of women and college-educated people, Democrats’ target
constituencies – people of color, urbanites and young people – don’t vote as
reliably as the historically-targeted Republican electorate – white, middle-
and upper-middle class suburban folks. Just ask Bernie Sanders.
Nevertheless, the white, non-college educated working-class people
who Mr. Trump has apparently captured don’t vote as reliably either. Although
it makes no difference for Tuesday’s election, the white working class has noticeably
diminished over time. Two demographers have noted that
in 1940 82% of Americans 25 and older were whites with no more than a high
school education; by 2007, that
figure had dwindled to 29%.
The waning prominence of white working-class people is directly
linked to the electorate. In 1980 according to exit polls, 63% of
the electorate was comprised of voters who were whites without a four-year
college education. That had dropped 10 points by 1992, when Bill Clinton won
the presidency. That election marked the last time exit polls would find whites
without college degrees to be a majority of voters. By the time Barack Obama
won the presidency in 2008, just 39% of those who cast ballots were whites
without college degrees.
For this and other reasons, white working-class men have reason to
feel disremembered. That is until The Donald pledged to focus his ethno-nativist attention on them. As we’ve seen during the past year, some
white working-class people remain vocal and motivated by ephemeral Trumpian messages.
My advice for those of you who haven’t yet voted is to make absolutely
sure you do. Your vote counts, and can make a very real difference. The resilient, postive destiny
of this great country depends on every eligible citizen to vote for
Hillary Clinton. She is infinitely more qualified, knowledgeable and capable
than her opponent. And unlike her opponent, she will keep our republic from
heading over a precipice too fraught to imagine.
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