Thursday, July 28, 2011

TIRESOME TIRADES

"Suppose you were an idiot, and suppose you were a member of Congress;
but I repeat myself." ~ Mark Twain

As President-for-Life of the Creston Economics Club, I've gotten increasingly tired with the media's daily grind of reporting on the "impending" debt issue facing our fine federal government. Fortunately, for the past several weeks we have been touring Europe and thankfully been out of touch from the hourly rants of politicians, lobbyists, financial moguls and smiling media personalities regarding the ever-growing "what if" economic/social/political scenarios about the Aug 2nd drop-dead deadline for financing our government. But now we're back in the good ol' USofA. Oh well. [I've secretly contemplated securing seats on some airline flight to some fairly isolated locale just to manage my fiscal blood pressure. Maybe Cody, Wyoming; Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea; Las Palmas, Canary Is., Hobart, Tasmania; or  Bridgetown, Barbados. Suggestions remain welcome.]
Despite no one's asking me, I'll share what I've gleaned so far in handy bullet-point format.
1.    No one knows what's going happen when Aug 2nd comes and goes without some sort of meaningful Congressional/White House fiscal agreement. Everything we've been hearing is pure speculation, unfounded by fact - and stated to bolster someone's position not to enable a resolution.
2.    The agreement will be founded on politics, not economics (see below).
3.    No one's wearing a white hat. We're all responsible for our nation's fiscal imbalance. We've individually and collectively been spending beyond our means forever – hence our fiscal debt. In this sense our politicians are just like the rest of us – we don't want to admit responsibility and cut our spending to more closely match our available revenues.
4.    Self-righteousness rules. We all want someone else to take the hit.
5.    Our politicians have been dancing around this "issue" for a very long time - it's been caused by many factors (some of which are actually under someone's control, others are not) – meaning it hasn't been in anyone's interest to resolve it until (perhaps) the very last moment – say on Aug 2nd if we're watching the ticking clock. So, reading and listening to the media's replay of the latest goings-on is decidedly premature before Aug 2nd (see #1 above).
6.    Given the continuing state of politics, it's entirely probable (I'd give it a 95% likelihood ±5%) that the political "solution" will not at all resolve the real economic imbalances underlying our government's fiscal situation. It will be temporary and inadequate. And the markets will immediately understand this (see #8, below).
7.    Unsurprisingly, unreality rules on every side of the political fences so far. No one believes anyone else's position. The tribal nature of humans is being all too amply demonstrated in Washington DC and other centers of political decision-making. Compromise is as deadly as Bubonic Plague, especially for the Taliban (aka tea-party) Republicans.
8.    So, what will happen? Here's my prediction, not burdened by any insiders' knowledge.
8.1.   The anonymous, fiscally powerful international bond markets will ultimately exercise their influence on the world's "safest" investment – the 10-year US Treasury note – by forcing Treasury yields up, just like they have on Greek, Irish and Portuguese bonds. Remarkably, Treasury notes' yields haven't risen much so far (reflecting in my mind the bond markets' understanding that before Aug 2nd all talk about US debt issues is irrelevant – again, see #1 above). Today's 10-year Treasury notes' yield is 2.95%. How much these yields will rise after Aug 2nd is anyone's guess, but they will rise.
8.2.  The federal government will begin exercising payment prioritization, in order to deal with the Treasury's inability to raise adequate funds to cover all its obligations. Who will get shafted? That's the $64 billion question. I tend to agree with others' assessments that folks who won't be getting timely payments from the federal government would include federal employees (although with the ultimate irony, not Congress people), government contractors, welfare recipients (who are always first to suffer), grants to the states, and possibly military personnel. US sovereign debt would be downgraded, other public and private bonds' values would fall, money-market and mutual funds would be adversely affected spreading the fiscal pain to many more folks. Is it time to sell short? Quite probably.
8.3.  After Aug 2nd the Law of Unintended Consequences will quickly exert its commanding influence in unpredictable ways that could unveil recessionary forces (and rising unemployment) across the economy in time for the middle rounds of the 2012 election season. Wonderful.
Onward towards uncertainty…


Sunday, July 3, 2011

THE UNDEVELOPED UNITED STATES


Money is like manure; it's not worth a thing unless it's spread around
encouraging young things to grow. ~ Thornton Wilder
Towards the end of the school year, the SF bay area high school economics classes I work with have a project where 2-person teams of students pick a "lesser-developed country" (LDC), gather a fair amount of information about this nation, and design a specific project to further the nation's development. Each team prepares a class presentation/proposal for funding their project by the World Bank. I think this process is pretty clever in that the students get to apply their development economics knowledge by creating a particular project that best addresses their country's development needs. In the jargon of consultants, they craft a "best and final" presentation for the teacher and several of their classmates to judge whether it's worthy of the World Bank money they've requested.
The students' projects have included a wide variety of smart ideas and approaches. This spring the development projects included building power plants in Vietnam, mobile phone systems in Sierra Leone, distributing medicines and health services in The Congo, modernizing port facilities in the Union of the Comoros, building roads in Honduras and installing irrigation systems in Mozambique.
To give the students a sense of what their presentations should include, I show to them a development project I've designed. During the past several years, I've done one assisting Liberia. For my presentation next year I plan to go "outside the box" by creating a development project inside the US, in several counties that typify the undeveloped areas of the USA. What, there are undeveloped areas here in the USA? Unfortunately, yes.
Over at least the last decade we have witnessed personal economic standing in the USA becoming much more uneven, depending in large part where on the income and wealth scale you fall. An executive summary description of this trend is: as the rich get richer, the poorer get the (empty) bag.
Essentially, the USA encompasses two (2) nations. The first is one we know best (USA-1), a most successful post-industrial society and a world-leader in many economic, cultural and social arenas. It's the USA we live in. This USA needs no World Bank assistance. In fact, this USA makes the largest single contribution to the World Bank's budget (about 17%). When you and I think of our country, we see the image of USA-1.
The other (USA-2) is comprised of chronically undeveloped, usually unspoken-about areas suffering from unremitting under-investment in human capital, infrastructure and citizens’ welfare. USA-2 needs substantive development assistance. USA-2 is the undeveloped USA; in effect, a domestic LDC.
Recognizing this, I examined several undeveloped areas of USA-2 for my next project/presentation. It’s these people and the areas they live in – including rural and inner-city areas, the de-developed, or more likely undeveloped areas of within the USA – that need generous development assistance.
More than most nations, the USA’s recent history has demonstrated an increasing trend of bifurcation in the economic and social status of its citizens. A small number of citizens have continued to dramatically increase their economic well-being from living in the world’s leading economy – I’ll call this group the “Top 1%ers.” Their income, wealth and position have steadily and significantly grown. Today, the Top 1% of income-earners (folks who average $1 million per year) now receives 20% of total USA income and account for 33% of total USA wealth. The “Bottom 50%ers” – folks making on average less than $25,000 per year (that's about $12/hr) – account for 13% of all income. These people have found their economic standing at best stagnated, if not deteriorated over the recent past (median real USA income has declined since 2002). The Bottom 50%ers – including working class, lower middle-class, urban and rural poor, dropouts, unemployed and homeless people – have become increasingly unsupported through their own actions or by federal, state, and local government programs.
The plight of these USA-2 dwellers confirms that "trickle down" economics exists only in textbooks and speeches, not in reality. If the dyspeptic, plutocratic Republicans have their way, the Bottom 50%ers will suffer even more from the severe consequences of disappearing government, becoming more isolated from USA-1, as well as facing ever-smaller prospects of getting even a part-time minimum-wage job (if they're lucky).
So, my development project focuses on a sliver of undeveloped USA-2: two (2) counties in South Dakota and one (1) county in Texas. These three (3) counties have the lowest per-capita income in the nation and typify USA-2. The table below presents characteristics of Buffalo County, SD; Shannon County, SD; and Starr County, TX. These counties' characteristics are contrasted with those of Alameda County, CA – my local standard of USA-1.


Characteristic
1. Buffalo County, SD
2. Shannon County, SD
3. Starr County, TX
Alameda County, CA
Per Capita Income
$5,213
Dominican Republic (84th)
$6,286
Columbia (75th)
$7,069
Suriname (72nd)
$33,831
New Zealand (24th)
Population
1,912 (2010); 2,032 (2000)
13,586 (2010); 12,466 (2000)
60,968 (2010); 53,600 (2000)
1,491,482 (2009)
Median Age
23 yrs.
21 yrs.
26 yrs.
34.5
Largest Ethnic Group (% pop.)
Native American (81.6%)
Native American (94.2%)
Hispanic (97.5%)
White, non-Hispanic (37.1%)
Unemployment Rate
57%
15%
17.9%
10.8%
Pop. Below Poverty Line
56.9%
52.3%
50.9%
10.7%

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Wikipedia
The national per-capita income is $47,200. In the table, the nations cited after each county's per-capita income are countries whose per capita income is equivalent to each of these counties, together with the rankings by the International Monetary Fund of these nations' per-capita income (shown in parentheses) out of 183 nations. Thus, Buffalo County’s per-capita income of $5,213 is equivalent to that of the Dominican Republic, ranked 84th in the world.
The project will target educational development in Buffalo, Shannon and Starr counties. As shown, each of them is small and has a very young, very ethnic demographic. You easily see these areas suffer from significant undevelopment; the majority of each county's population lives below the poverty line; their unemployment rates are all elevated above the US national rate of 9.1% (May 2011).
It is virtually certain USA-2 areas will further deteriorate over the next year or two when federal, state and local funding contracts. For example, Texas will reduce its education expenditures by $4 billion. Unfortunately other fiscally-challenged states, like California, are doing the same thing due to fiscal imbalances. California's just-enacted budget includes $2.8 billion in deferrals to K-12 schools and community colleges, $150 million cuts to the University of California and $150 million reductions to California State University. USA-2 will continue to be at the very end of the long line when funding requests are pleaded.
USA-2 covers many parts of the nation. The 100 poorest counties in the USA include 17 in Texas; 16 in Kentucky; 14 in Mississippi; 10 in South Dakota; 4 in Montana; and 4 in New Mexico. At the other end of the scale, New York (Manhattan) county’s per capita income is $147,000, the highest in the USA. That's over 28 times Buffalo county’s. From the table it's obvious these 3 counties are much different from (most of) Alameda County. And yet they are all part of the USA – prime examples of the undeveloped USA-2.
The most dynamic resource of our nation, the one that forms the strongest basis for our nation's economic and social potential, is our people. But USA-2’s indigenous labor remains unskilled and outmoded compared to USA-1 – hence the characteristic high unemployment. In my opinion the greatest impediment for development in USA-2 is something we all mostly take for granted: an effective and capable formal education system. My development project thus focuses on education because USA-2’s human capital desperately needs to be considerably strengthened and advanced.
My proposed development project will improve educational capabilities and performance in Buffalo, Shannon and Starr counties (BSS). How will this happen? I propose 3 mechanisms for success:
1.       Strengthen BSS’s primary and secondary educational infrastructure. Repair & construct K-8 & High Schools. Nine (9) new schools will be built;
2.       Enhance BSS’s teacher training, skills, recruitment and retention; and
3.       Create and implement suitable curricula for BSS schools that focus on developing marketable, employable skills.
My 4-year project would receive funding both from the World Bank and USA-1 (principally from the Department of Education). Will this project eradicate these counties' educational and economic deficits? No; but hopefully it can provide a needed initial step towards more secure and sustainable development.
What's the likelihood that such a project would actually get started? Zero. As I've said in other posts, the Republicans have bowled over the timid, spineless Democrats to define now as a time of government shrinkage. Federal Education Dept. expenditures will likely shrivel, not expand to help undeveloped areas in USA-2. And, given Congress's growing international isolation – thanks mostly to xenophobic Republicans – it would take a very brave group of politicians (Do they exist anymore? I think not.) to consider receiving World Bank funding for a domestic project, even if it's fully justified and worthy.
With these prospects, my project will remain only an idea for a small number of high school economics students – not a real project helping needful children and youth in USA-2. USA-1 helps fund World Bank projects throughout the world of under-developed nations, but not within its borders. That's a tragedy for today and many tomorrows.