Friday, May 21, 2021

FLYWHEELS TO SUCCESS

 Habit is the enormous flywheel of society. ~ William James

Flywheels have been used for thousands of years. You may not have noticed them because they’re mostly hidden. Nevertheless, they’ve come a long way despite being unacknowledged yet essential parts inside millions of everyday machines.

The word “flywheel” originally appeared in 1784, during the beginnings of the Industrial Revolution, referring to “a heavy-rimmed revolving wheel to regulate motion.” In most cases, flywheels transform intermittent reciprocating motion (for example from a motor’s cylinders) into constant, rotary motion.

The first machine to use a flywheel was a potter’s wheel. The potter’s wheel arguably has been called humanity’s most significant machine invention, second only perhaps to the lever. Some archeologists believe it was invented in Mesopotamia very long ago. Others have said it was first used in China, South Asia, southeastern Europe and/or Egypt very long ago. It’s no surprise that its origin isn’t distinct, ancient potters were making earthenware plates, urns, vases and pots everywhere, even over four millennia ago.

During the reign of Egyptian Pharaoh Sneferu, around 2600 BCE, potters lengthened the turntable shaft and added a separated flywheel directly underneath the wheel. It was a momentous improvement. The flywheel was moved by the potter pulling the edge with the left hand while forming the clay on the wheel with the right (potters apparently were all right-handed way back then). This led to the counterclockwise motion for the potter's wheel rotation, which after 4,600 years still remains almost universal. The successful addition of the flywheel not only changed the way potters made their wares, it significantly increased their quantity and quality. The lowly flywheel thus has contributed to why archeologists can find so much primordial earthenware pottery around the globe.

Later, the wheel’s shaft was elongated again, allowing the flywheel to be nearer the floor so the potter could turn it with a foot, as shown below. This allowed her/him to continuously use both hands to shape the item. What a concept, that again improved productivity and value.


Flywheels have fruitfully spun far beyond potters’ workplaces. They now make mechanical presses, torpedo propellers, mine locomotives, power hammers, riveting machines and research tokamaks actually work. Every one of the roughly 1.4 billion (B) fossil-fuel powered vehicles in the world has a flywheel, along with countless other devices that use reciprocating engines.

Speaking of which, here’s a picture of the pioneering British rail locomotive developed by Richard Trevithick in 1802. Its gigantic flywheel, about 13ft in diameter, evenly distributed the periodic power of its single-cylinder steam engine.

In a modern incarnation of the flywheel, Jeff Bezos, who is once again the world’s richest person, created a company largely founded on what he termed the “flywheel effect.” Amazon’s flywheel has no physicality or relationship to antique potter’s wheels; it’s a self-supporting growth strategy. Other companies have used similar approaches, none as successfully as Amazon.

From its beginning the Amazon flywheel meant providing focused investment in making its customer experience distinctive, worthwhile and valued, so customers would return. In 1994 Bezos founded Amazon as an online seller of books. By 1997, during the dot-com bubble and its successful IPO, the firm was selling more items, including music and videos. The Amazon IPO share price was $18, which if you were then clever enough to buy $100 of them, would now be worth $120,000. Congratulations.

At this point, it’s hard to think of what Amazon doesn’t sell. When customers repeatedly returned to amazon.com it drove Amazon to broaden and improve the selection of goods on the website, which further enhanced its cost structure, due to the benefits of network effects. This, in turn, allowed Amazon to reduce its prices, further spinning the flywheel.

Like the giant flywheel attached to the steam locomotive, it took Bezos and his talented team a lot of effort at first to get it moving. But once momentum picked up, their flywheel allowed them to let things unfold with less exertion and more focus on new opportunities. In 2019, Amazon acquired its 100th company. It currently is negotiating to buy MGM for $9B. Amazon’s flywheel continues turning ever more rapidly and has shown itself to be far, far larger than the Trevithick locomotive’s.

Flywheels thus are worthy of a bit more attention. Going whole flywheel, H.L. Mencken said, “The universe is a gigantic flywheel and humanity is a fly taking a dizzy ride on it.” Ride on.

 




Tuesday, May 11, 2021

HERD IMMUNITY?

Vaccination is the medical sacrament corresponding to baptism. Whether it is or it is not more efficacious, I do not know. ~ Samuel Butler  

Emus no longer fly higher than we humans’ realistic hopes for attaining global herd immunity from the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

Herd immunity refers to the level of protection from an infectious disease – like covid-19 – that occurs either when a sufficiently high proportion of a human population can no longer acquire or transmit infection, or when immunity resulting through vaccination or previous infection has been attained. Reaching this threshold level of protection is crucial.

Emus, a herd of which is shown below cavorting in their native Australian outback, do not fly. However, they can run as fast as 30mph. But, being appropriately adaptable on six different occasions during their 10-million year stay here on Mother Earth, emus apparently have to been able to fly, then abandoned flight and later relearned how to use their wings for liftoff. Impressivo. Do emus enjoy herd emunity? That is not yet known. 

A herd of emus in the outback. With herd emunity?

In early 2020, at the height of initial pandemic anxieties, the CDC and other public health authorities proclaimed herd immunity as a goal for its efforts to curtail the spread of SARS-CoV-2, aka covid-19. Early on, when asked about covid herd immunity, the CDC said it was possible after about 60-70% of all of us are immunized and behaving appropriately.

Through last spring and fall, the CDC emphasized attaining herd immunity. It no longer does. This puzzling change acknowledges a shift in epidemiological thinking. Several intervening factors likely make attaining herd immunity an uncertain prospect at best, and realistically unlikely any time soon.

These factors include: the uneven vaccine rollout, together with some people’s persistent, “unscientific” hesitancy about getting inoculated with a vaccine and widely-circulating coronavirus variants, like B.1.1.7 here in the US.

Such covid variants have been completely expected. It’s what viruses do. Unfortunately, every virus does its best to lengthen its effective life-cycle by always producing mutant variants (also called strains). Some strains are more contagious and/or lethal, others are not.

The annual flu vaccine “booster shots” that we’ve been living with since 1945 attest to such variants. Each year’s booster shot for flu is different, depending on the latest variants. Despite the shots, on average the flu kills 36,000 people in the US per year.

According to the FDA, the 2020-21 seasonal influenza vaccine formulation will likely cover four viral variants: an A/Hawaii/70/2019 (H1N1) pdm09-like virus; an A/HongKong/45/2019 (H3N2)-like virus; a B/Washington/02/2019-like virus and a B/Phuket/3073/2013-like virus (B/Yamagata lineage).

So now you know and can ready your arm for flu shots beginning in October. Interestingly, last year’s flu season was unusual in that flu cases began to decline in March. According to the CDC, this was “perhaps associated with community prevention measures for covid-19.” Thank goodness for small favors.

But back to our current nemesis, covid-19. Contrary to the media’s hype – the multitude of misbegotten headlines about “conquering covid” – after the first covid vaccines became available last December, the covid-19 virus will not be defeated any more than the typical flu virus has been.

There won’t be a “one and done” covid vaccine. The covid-19 virus will very likely need to be “managed,” like every other dangerous virus has been for over 200 years. Depending on how long immunity lasts, each of us should expect to receive periodic (possibly annual) covid-variant-based booster shots.

On May 3, Dr. Anthony Fauci himself dismissed the relevance of herd immunity as a goal, saying “People were getting confused and thinking you’re never going to get the infections down until you reach this mystical level of herd immunity, whatever that number is.” Mystical; that’s nice word-play Dr. Merlin.

On May 10, Jeffrey Zients, the White House Covid Coordinator, stated instead of reaching herd immunity, the goal should be to achieve some sense of normalcy by getting 70% of Americans immunized. Ah, normalcy. But does it beat herd immunity? More to the point, what exactly does “normalcy” mean?

Dr. Fauci and Mr. Zients are casting mistargeted aspersions. We vaccine-recipients and non-recipients ourselves were not “getting confused.” We are being excessively aided in our confusion by experts like yourselves who have been broadcasting differing, inconsistent stories about covid’s apparently-mystical herd immunity, and its threshold level. If anyone is confused, it’s been the experts. Not us.

Some doctors have said the covid herd immunity threshold (HIT) rate – the immunization level required to provide general, overall population protection – is about 60-70%, as mentioned above. Other epidemiologists have estimated the covid HIT rate is more likely 80-90%.

After months of emphasizing it, experts like Dr. Fauci are now shelving herd immunity as a goal for covid control. My bet is they’re now dismissing herd immunity because it cannot be realistically attained. Reaching herd immunity across Earth’s seven continents is even more next to impossible.

If we can somehow now become convinced to forget about herd immunity and instead believe in attaining “normalcy,” public health experts and administrators could eventually be judged victorious.

For other infectious diseases, attaining their HIT rate has been successfully accomplished. Measles’ HIT rate is an unmystical, but high 95% due to its significant contagiousness. Like other transmissible diseases, measles has been around for a long time. The measles virus moved from livestock to humans roughly 4000 years ago. A vaccine was introduced 58 years ago, in 1963. This vaccine remains 99% effective.

The measles, mumps, rubella (MMR) vaccine is administered to young children, as you may know or even remember. The CDC has declared 90.8% of US children by age 24 months have been immunized for MMR. In 2019, there were just 1,282 individual cases of measles throughout the US. Victory! Nevertheless, about 1.3M people die from measles annually across the globe.

Since Jan. 1, 2021, 3.2M deaths have occurred worldwide from covid; just over 581,000 in the US. As of May 11, 35% of Americans are fully vaccinated.

No matter how mystical it might be, public health authorities should continue wrangling to reach herd immunity for the covid-19 virus, not just whatever normalcy may be. They possess vital medical and social obligations to do so. Attaining the final percentages of immunization for the US covid HIT rate will be challenging and involve disproportionate expense and time. Is that extra expense worth it? Folks including the president will have to decide when to declare relative “success,” but it isn’t going to be soon.

 

 

Wednesday, May 5, 2021

ON THE ROAD, AGAIN

Flip-flops are a privilege, not a right. ~ Michael Bastian  

People are journeying once again, even to Disneyland which opened on Apr 30. Finally, folks have begun responding to our homes’ pleas “Why are you still here?” We voyagers are cashing in on multi-months’ worth of pent-up demand to go someplace, anyplace away from our residences.

In early March we flew to Maui for some beach time. The plane was at most one-third full; no one was in a loathed middle seat. Several weeks later on our return the plane was at least three-quarters full, including middle seats. More of us are on the road again, just like Willie Nelson. 

The covid pandemic has been a catastrophe for the leisure and hospitality industry, especially airlines. The International Air Transport Association called 2020 the worst year in history for airline passenger demand. Are Wilbur and Orville rolling in their graves? Perhaps. International air passenger demand in 2020 was 75.6% below 2019 levels; domestic demand was down 48.8%.

Places like Hawaii where tourism is a paramount economic activity were particularly hard hit. Tourism accounts for over 20% of its state GDP. Last October, more than 6 months into the pandemic, the number of people flying to Hawaii remained down more than 90% from a year before. Tourism-related tax revenues dropped 90% year-over-year in May 2020. Ouch.

The travel tides seem to be turning, fortunately for airlines, hotels and tourists. And guess what that means, increasing use of and demand for flip-flops. Oh yeah.

    For me, flip-flops and travel are very closely related. So, in the spirit of these newly-traveling times here’s what I learned about the soul of these no-heeled, single-strapped sandals, like those shown above in a rainbow-like colors.

First, they’re hardly new. In America the expression “flip-flop” became popular by the early 1960s. But according to Wikipedia, they’ve been worn around the globe for thousands of years. When you wanted to “travel” (meaning walk without damaging your feet), covering your soles was important. Simply chanting meditations for your soles didn’t work, sandals really safeguarded them.

Egyptian murals from around 4000 BC showed people wearing them. A pair of 1500 year-old sandals was found in Europe. Ancient Greeks and Romans wore primordial versions of flip-flops. Such sandals were made from a variety of local materials including papyrus and palm leaves (Egypt and beyond), rawhide (the Maasai people, near what’s now South Sudan), wood (India), rice straw (China and Japan), sisal leaves (South America) and yucca (Mexico).

Flip-flops are our planet’s most-used shoe. About 3 billion flip flops are produced worldwide each year. They are the #1 shoe in China, #1 in India, #1 in Africa and #1 in Hawaii, which together represent 53% of Earth’s entire population.

Given the global use of flip-flops, they’re called many names. The chart below shows 18 different designations that folks from Kihei to Cape Town use to describe their sandals. What do you call them?

     Names of no-heeled, single-strapped sandals 

In America

In the Rest of

the World

Flip-flops, thongs, go-aheads, slippers, shower-shoes, zories, clacks, clippies, scuffs

Pluggers, jandals, Havaianas, slops, visplakkies, tsinelas, smagol, padukas, chappal

IAlthough modern flip-flops have the "toe knob” anchor between the first and second toes just like Greek and Indian sandals did, Roman sandals’ toe-knob was between the second and third toes, Mesopotamians’ between the third and fourth toes.

Flip-flops in the US first became well-known as soldiers returned from their WWII Pacific deployments bringing Japanese zori sandals. By the late 1950’s they were redesigned using bright colors and soon covered many more American soles.

One recent estimate of international flip-flop market sales was $20.1 billion (B), with an expected annual growth rate of 4.2%. Well-known flip-flops wearers include the Dalai Lama. Honolulu-born Barack Obama became the first US president to be photographed wearing flip-flops.

US sales of flip-flops was $3.6B in 2020, with female purchasers accounting for a dominant 76% of the market. The continued high demand for flip-flops is based on their durability and low prices. Speaking of which, want to guess what the Dollar Store sells its flip-flops for?[1].

One analyst said that US sales of flip-flops exceeded those of sneakers for the first time in 2006, which, if true is quite remarkable given their low cost. But not all flip-flops are inexpensive.

Topping the list of posh sandals were ones developed by an eco-friendly footwear company and artist David Palmer, who painted a very limited flip-flop edition. For a mere $18,000 per pair each purchaser was guaranteed the protection of 100,000 square feet (not their own) of Costa Rican rainforest.

Speaking of flip-flops and ecology, some manufacturers are now changing their production methods to reduce flip-flops’ petrochemical-based inputs. They’re switching to natural rubber, papyrus (yup, returning to a plant used in primeval flip-flops), sugar cane and possibly algae.

The leading Brazilian maker of flip-flops, Havainianas, produces well over 150 million pair a year. Intriguingly, the company name is derived from the feminine form of the Portuguese word for Hawaiians. Havainianas’ most basic flip-flops start at $26, which some estimate includes a 700% markup. Their most expensive pair costs $150, the Zori Mastermind.

Whether you’re wearing your go-aheads, zories or jandals to stroll on Hawaiian beaches or on the South Jersey shore or voyaging the Kalahari or the Tenggeli, you’ll be sauntering in style just like folks have been for centuries.

 



[1] You get four stars for correctly guessing $1.00.