Thursday, January 28, 2021

THE HIGHER AND LOWER COMMONS

We will never be defined by tragedy, but instead by how we respond to it. ~ Kevin Brady 

A brief preface. Spring came two-months early this year for me – on January 20 – when Joe Biden was inaugurated as President and Kamala Harris as our Vice President. I am beyond delighted. Although we Americans still face significant challenges – the Covid pandemic and the recession, to name just two – my optimista feelings are far stronger and encouraging about getting through the next few whiles. I’ve sorely missed having these feelings for all too long, four years too long.

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Common land has been an ancient and principal ingredient for humans’ progress. It’s land owned collectively by multiple people, or by one person, but which others have rights to use. Such rights have included pasture and pannage. Pasture rights allowed yeomen to let their livestock – cattle, sheep, horses and other animals – graze on the common land. Pannage is a common-land right that permitted crofters to turn out their pigs to eat nuts that had fallen on the ground from Oak, Beech and other trees in autumn. Yum.

Millennia ago, virtually all human pastoral groups held common land; millions of acres of open-field, common land existed for centuries. An example, below, is Buchans Field in Scotland, near South Lamarkshire, that was farmed as common land for nearly a millennium from the Middle Ages until the late 16th century. There’s much less common land now. 

Buchans Field, an area of Scottish common land .

One of the earliest and remaining examples of common land in North America is the Boston Common, dating from 1634, and now a center-city public park.[1] It’s the oldest city park in the US. In the 1630s this common was used by many people as a pasture for their cows. Alas, as families put more and more cows to feed on the common, while contentedly chewing their cuds, it began suffering from overgrazing.

In 1646 the Puritan elders ordered a limitation, that the common could have no more than 70 cattle/cows at any time to stop its ruin. It’s not clear if the elders’ limitation ameliorated this first American tragedy of the commons. It took another 200 years for this common’s authorities to formally ban cows.

What is clear, the Boston Common has not been the last American tragedy of the commons. The notion of the common has expanded greatly since 1968, when Garrett Harden wrote his ground-breaking article, “The Tragedy of the Commons.” In Harden’s view the actions of individuals using a common resource for their own, specific gain, without regard for others, will ultimately and tragically despoil and deplete these resources.

The modern characterization of the common or “common resources” includes not only land, but any jointly-held, open-access resource, be it land, rivers, oceans, the atmosphere or beyond. I describe now the status of two examples of commons, one new, heretofore uncommon and very high, the other lower and much more well-trodden.

The Higher Common.  Let’s get very high and talk about our space common. Yes, there is one. There are two portions of this higher common, so far. First, and farther away, is the moon.

The 1967 UN Outer Space Treaty that 132 nations have signed states that no government can claim the moon; it is wholly a common resource. The 1979 UN Moon Agreement strengthens this in saying lunar resources are the "common heritage of mankind" and must be shared.

When Neil Armstrong became the first human to step onto our moon on July 20, 1969. He and Buzz Aldrin called it a day after walking around in the lunar dust for three hours. My brother and I happened to be in London that day. We went to a local pub to celebrate Apollo 11’s pioneering success and were toasted by many equally-happy Brits who bought us as many pints as we wanted. That was a most uncommon day.

The second portion of space common is our planet’s atmospheric common, which is far more populated with human pursuits including much twirling debris. The first human-built, artificial satellite that entered our space common circling the Earth was USSRs Sputnik 1. It initiated the US-USSR Space Race.

Sputnik was launched into low-Earth orbit on October 4, 1957. The small (23 in. diameter) sphere with trailing antennae orbited for three weeks before its batteries died and then burned up in the atmosphere two months later. Going forward 63 years there are now over 2,218 operational satellites revolving in Earth’s space commons. Twelve nations and one regional organization (the European Space Agency) have launched orbiting satellites. The US has launched 859 satellites, the most of any nation.

There are also more than one million pieces of space junk also circling mother Earth. The bulk of orbital waste are small objects like paint flecks, metal parts and solidified liquids ejected from spacecraft. Also, the US Space Surveillance Network is continuously tracking more than 20,000 larger objects, like dead satellites and abandoned launch vehicle stages. The higher common doesn’t suffer from too many cows, it’s littered with mega junk.

Several manned and unmanned spacecraft have been damaged or wrecked by space debris. So, before you book your sub-orbital flight on Virgin Galactic from its Spaceport America facility near Truth or Consequences, New Mexico (here’s hoping it will all be truth, and no nasty consequences), you may want to check exactly how your pilot will avoid the ever-growing mess of low-earth orbital scrap. Virgin Galactic says they have 600 paying customers (a suspiciously round number), including Justin Bieber and Leonard de Caprio, ready for their $250,000 rides. Happy trails, guys.

A vital question is how to remove orbiting space junk, to reduce this higher common’s growing tragedy. Technically, it’s hugely challenging because of the technological hurdles associated with relevant orbital mechanics. Several possible means of dissipating the debris are being discussed. Very early, initial tests are planned, not any of which is ready for prime-time space garbage collecting. Crucially, none of the participants in the orbital marketplace is ready to answer the very expensive, key question, “who’s going to pay and how?” Until that happens, space junk will keep proliferating.

The Lower Common.  Back to Earth. The lower common doesn’t require a telescope or a rocket ship to see. Just take a gander at some terrestrial fresh water, perhaps the most precious resource that sustains our lives, next to the atmosphere. Fresh water is a finite, common resource needed by every living organism on a daily basis. For a very long time, even in the mostly-arid Western US, we have taken its availability for granted. That time is ending.

A recent example is the 2011 through 2014 severe drought in California, the driest in the state’s history. This was the latest one. There have been many other droughts that have affected western states on an all too regular basis, which we do our best not to think much about.

This devastating drought was principally caused by climatic conditions (as always), and magnified by misguided government policies governing the water market. I characterize it as a liquid tragedy of the common caused in large part by pricing water too low for too long for too many users.

The market for fresh water in the western US (and elsewhere) is highly regulated by federal, state and local public agencies. In large part, the tragedy is based on regulated prices of water that have never reflected the actual costs and value of providing and using it.

Substantial public subsidies, at the deep end of the subsidy pool especially for agricultural (ag) irrigators, have kept water prices preferentially very low. Thus, there has long been over-consumption and inefficient usage of this common resource. Six years ago, over 210,000 California water customers were not even metered for their usage, including in Sacramento and South Lake Tahoe. These customers pay a flat rate no matter how much water they use.

Agricultural irrigation users have benefited the most from inexpensive water prices. They consume about 80% of California’s fresh water all by themselves, and for decades have paid downright benthic, rock-bottom lowest prices of any users.

The uppermost prices that large-scale California irrigation customers pay are only about 20% of what residential water customers shell out. Even though urban water’s prices that you and I pay are typically faint (e.g., 1.4¢ /gal.), they’re much, much higher than irrigators’ prices. A 5:1 price ratio between urban and ag users is common; with ratios as high as 10:1 in some areas.

Such large price differences between irrigators and residential customers have enticed new entrants into water markets. Specifically, well-funded private investment firms are purchasing relatively inexpensive age-old water-rights from farmers or water districts so they can eventually then sell to urban districts for a profit. These firms are making money the old-fashion way in a new context; in this case as water arbitragers, by inexpensively buying a truly liquid asset and selling it higher to other customers.

Why would farmers sell their property’s water rights? The investment firms are offering them attractive prices. Farmers have traditionally seen their land as their 401(k). But the parched Western US with its ever-increasing urbanization requires more and more water for residents. This is especially true for urban areas surrounded by low-rainfall desert, like Las Vegas and Phoenix.

For ag irrigators throughout the seven-state Colorado River basin and in the Central Valley, their retirement funds now are far more likely to be their riparian water rights rather than their acreage per se. Their water-rights are becoming worth much more to private investors than their land.

This shift of water rights from the common to absentee investors is changing who controls one of the most valuable resources in the US, publicly-owned water. If this continues, I would characterize it as a re-Cadillacing of western water resources, apropos of Marc Reisner’s classic book, The Cadillac Desert, in which he castigated preposterous federal and state water development policies. Where the lower common ends is anyone’s guess; not even the Puritans’ successors know.

 



[1] Indigenous, native American peoples used common land to graze their animals and sow crops for centuries, long before 1634. 




Friday, January 8, 2021

BUILDING BRIDGES TO NORMALCY

Bridges are the most invisible form of public architecture. ~ Bruce Jackson 

Hurray for Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff in their victories last Tuesday. Their unexpected, hard-fought double triumphs mean the Dems’ will soon control of all three branches of the federal government – the House, the Senate and the White House.

The last time the Dems controlled the federal government was from 2009-2011, during the first two years of President Obama’s initial term. Their control was solid but not durable; it only lasted until January 2011. The Repubs swept control of the House with a massive net gain of 63 seats from the Dems in the Nov. 2010 mid-term elections.

As President, Joe Biden will need to rapidly build many bridges to navigate the rough road back to his and our ever-evolving vision of normalcy. That will be no mean feat necessitating focus and mastery. Such bridges have nothing to do with structural engineering, everything to do with civil engineering, with us civilians.

    Bixby Creek Bridge, Big Sur, CA

Undoubtedly, Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi have been closely working with soon-to-be President Joe Biden in how to most effectively use their power. Their unified control must be purposeful and directed so it might continue beyond 2022’s mid-term elections.

The Dems’ multi-faceted coalition creates challenges for President Biden and his stalwarts, even after winning both peachy Senate run-off contests. Early prognostication about the Dems’ dual victories cite massive Dem voter turnout as a principal factor. Truly impressive with giant thanks to folks like Stacey Abrams.

These victories now provide a 50-50 split between Dem and Repub senators that can and will be broken by Vice-President Kamala Harris’ tie-breaker vote as President of the Senate. She’ll likely be spending a fair amount of time at her Senate Dias.

This volatile 50-50 Senate equanimity has happened just three times in US history. Once in 1881, next in 1958 and most recently in 2001, during the George W. Bush administration.

Nineteen years ago, the Dems’ Senate leaders ultimately convinced Repub Senator James Jeffords (VT) to switch parties and become an Independent within the Dem caucus. The Dems’ enticed Sen. Jeffords by promising him the chairmanship of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee. Sen. Jeffords’ switch gave the Dems slender control of the Senate, 51-49. Praise be for a Machiavellian delight.

Despite the Dems’ incipient control, Prog legislatively-based nirvanic hopes will need to be reined in as a thoroughly unlikely prospect. Why? Because there will not be 50 Democratic senators who would vote for programs like Bernie Sanders’ essential ones (below). Except perhaps infrastructure expenditures, which although perennially popular are both notoriously difficult to enact and take a long time to effectuate (more than 24 months). Also, it’s likely that Repubs would not make up for any inevitable dearth of Dem votes on bills that can’t satisfy every single Dem.

Strongly liberal Progressives should glide down out of campaigning’s stratosphere where everything is verbally possible (e.g., passing Bernie’s seven Essential Programs) and return to the grounded nitty-gritty political reality of having a slim one-vote margin of control in the Senate.

Joe Biden’s Key Campaign Programs

Bernie Sanders’ Essential Programs

Economic Stimulus (ver. 3)

Medicare for All

Healthcare Reform

Social Security Expansion

Climate/Environment Improvement

12-week Parental and Medical Leave

K-12 Education

$15/hr. Guaranteed Federal Jobs

Higher Education

New Infrastructure

Housing

Free College

 

Student Debt Cancellation

Est’d Cost: $7.7 trillion

Est’d Cost: $42.5 trillion

     In order to achieve any satisfactory accomplishments, President Biden must choose what program of his key ones he will commit to as tippy-top importance and become law of the land during his first 100 days. This sounds straightforward. The only impossible thing is how to make such a choice. For President Biden the choice is made that much more challenging because of sky-high expectations for his nascent administration.

Governing isn’t at all the same as campaigning. It’s always easier to create a comprehensively long to-do list as a platform; the above table is Exhibit A. That really is what campaigning thrives on. It’s far trickier and consequential to state what should be postponed or, oh my goodness, not acted upon when in office.

My bet is President Biden will first push hard for a third stimulus package including vaccinations, as numero uno. This stimulus, perhaps $2T, should wisely emphasize benefits for folks in real need, not those making $100k/yr.; and somehow keep the bridges to nowhere totally unbuilt. Maybe by limiting the bill to no more than 810 pages? What comes afterwards will involve a slugfest.

The new president’s now-narrower majority in the House (11 votes) and slimmest of majorities in the Senate (1 vote), will require considerable dexterity and discipline to get any legislation passed by Congress. The Dems Senate caucus cannot afford any of its members to stray, which has always been a trying task.

The 50-50 Senate balance will provide potential leverage to individual Dem senators to demand accommodation on particulars of an important Senate bill to ensure their vote. Give and take on any evolving piece of legislation is a given. How effective such demands might be will depend on the skills of Sen. Schumer and his likely Whip, Sen. Richard Durbin. Sen. Durbin’s life on The Hill will be worthy of many Xanax on an all too regular basis because getting to 51 is going to be an on-going challenge.

Another Dem possibility would be to pursue what they accomplished in 2001 when the Senate last enjoyed an unnatural 50-50 vote split. If they haven’t already, newly-Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Sen. Durbin should focus on convincing at least one Repub Senator to emulate Sen. Jeffords’ switch to Independence.

Could political lightning strike again in the Senate? Perhaps, with phone calls and masked meetings with the Senate Majority leaders with Repub senators like Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski or perhaps Mitt Romney. Such a switch might take advantage of the public’s outrage at Repubs for the Trumpian mobs’ insidious storming of the Capitol. Not being a Repub suddenly has much more potential value, especially when it comes with side benefits like a committee chairpersonship. Niccolò would be pleased. An additional vote or two would become a valued insurance policy for President Biden’s legislative hopes.

Nevertheless, with 51 votes the Dems can confirm Joe’s nominees for Cabinet positions, for federal judgeships and even for a seat on the Supreme Court should one unexpectedly become open.

The Dems now must also plan to use the legislative “reconciliation” budgetary mechanism to pass certain legislation. Reconciliation can only be applied to a bill if it’s related to revenue, spending or the national debt limit. Reconciliation allows the Senate to pass legislation with just 51 votes, because it’s not subject to filibuster rules that that require 60 votes for passage. That’s nine (9) more than they now have.

But reconciliation limits the number of bills that can be passed in each area and cannot be used to pass legislation unrelated to the three areas. Giving Dreamers a path to citizenship, or creating a public option within Medicare would not likely pass strict reconciliation criteria.

Alternatively, President Biden will certainly use his powers to make executive policy changes via the Executive Order (EO) procedure. In spite of his past criticism of #45s expansive use of them, he will also be signing his own EOs after Jan. 20th. Perhaps the Dreamers will realize citizenship through an executed EO, rather than a signed piece of legislation. Joe will be quite busy signing EOs, as well as initiating a Dept. of Justice investigation into how #45 should be charged with sedition. Just a thought.

Here’s deeply hoping President Biden’s Inauguration goes smoothly and the Capitol police will actually do their jobs this time. Goooo Joe!