We residents of the United States usually describe our nation as
the sum of all 50 states, emphasizing the “united” part of our nation’s
name. For example, our national population is now over 324 million people and our
gross domestic product (GDP) is $18.45 trillion, the world’s largest. The all
too incendiary nature of this year’s protracted presidential campaign has sadly
imperiled this emphasis on our united states.
Nonetheless our individual states reflect a vast and distinct
array of characteristics. Such a range of features has historically contributed
to our collective strength – dare I say greatness – as a nation. It still does.
This blog offers a palette of how different individual states are
with regard to their demographic and economic characteristics. In a very real
sense the six (6) states that I have selected from different US Census Divisions,
and displayed in the map below, are states of distinct destinies. Travelling
west to east, they are: California, Utah, Kansas, Mississippi, Pennsylvania and
Maine. Each state has distinguishing geography, climate and economic traits, as
well as demographic characteristics that I will discuss. [If I haven’t picked
your favorite state, you can readily get specific information about it and see
how it compares to the 6 states I have selected by going to the US Census’ Quick
Facts website here.]
Map of the United States with My Six Selected
States
Table 1 lists the 16 demographic, economic and other characteristics
I examine and provides national values for each of these characteristics that I
will also examine for the 6 states.
Table 1: Key Characteristics of the United
States
Characteristic
|
United States
|
Population (millions)
|
324.6 (3)*
|
Population
growth rate
|
0.81% (135)
|
GDP (billions)
|
$18,450 (1)
|
Per Capita GDP growth (2010-13)
|
1.2%
|
Median
Household Income (2014)
|
$53,482
|
Median
age
|
37.9 years (62)
|
Life
expectancy at birth
|
79.8 years (42)
|
Millennial
generation
|
23.5% of pop.
|
Generation
X
|
20.6%
|
Baby
Boomers
|
23.3%
|
Silent
generation
|
8.7%
|
Pop:
White / Hispanic / Black (%)
|
61.6 / 17.6 / 13.3
|
Poverty
Rate
|
13.5%
|
Fertility
rate (births per woman)
|
1.87 (142)
|
BA or higher degree, 25 years or
older
|
29.3% (9)
|
Average Temperature (degrees F)
|
54.4
|
Source: US Census, CIA World
Factbook, NOAA. *World rank in parentheses.
Our
national demographics. The
US has the third-largest population in the world in 2016, over 324 million
people, behind China and India. Our 2016 national population growth rate of
0.81% is quite modest from an international perspective; it ranked 135th highest.
The US fertility rate, measuring the number of births per woman aged 15-44
years old, is 1.87. This relatively low fertility rate is internationally
ranked 142nd highest and below the 2.1 births per woman population replacement
rate. The US median age is 37.9 years and growing, ranked 62nd and in the
oldest third of nations internationally. Niger is the world’s youngest nation,
with a median age of only a fledging 15.2 years; Monaco is the oldest nation at
51.7 years. US life expectancy at birth is 79.8 years, in the top one-fifth of
nations and ranked 42nd internationally, and comparable to that of Taiwan and
the European Union.
A significant and inevitable generational transformation is underway
in the US nationally and on a state-by-state basis, as I discuss later. The millennial generation, people 18 to 34 years old in 2015, for the first time
outnumber the baby boomers, as shown
in Table 1. We boomers – ages 51 to 69
– have had a lengthy run being the most attended to generation, based on our
numbers and activities. This run is now ending.
The figure below shows how the generational composition of the US
population will change from 2015 to 2050. As shown, the current national
population splits between millennials, boomers and Gen Xers are fairly
comparable to each other – millennials represent 23.5% of the US population,
boomers embody 23.3%, Gen X 20.6% and the silent generation 8.7%. As I will
show, states’ generational composition can vary widely.
This figure demonstrates that with every tick of the clock and
click of the mouse, millennials’
numerical preeminence grows larger and boomers’ diminishes. Generation X (ages 35-50 in 2015) is
projected to pass the boomers in population by 2028. The silent generation, ages 69 to 87 in 2015, represents only a
diminishing 8.7% of the US population.
Source: Pew Research
Center, US Census
Nationally, 29.3% of people over 25 years old have received an
undergraduate (BA) degree or higher. This percentage has steadily grown during
the past several decades, as I have discussed previously.
Despite this rise, the US is ranked just
9th among 34 OECD (developed) nations and 10 others in terms of our adult population’s
level of tertiary education. In 2014 the racial composition of the US reflects
over 60% white, almost 18% Hispanic and 13% African-American. This ethnic/racial
composition widely varies by state, as we shall see. Across the US, 13.5% of families
live in poverty, which this
year means making less than $20,100/yr for a family of 3 people.
Our
Macroeconomic State of Affairs. Our GDP is first-ranked and continues to grow
at a solid annual pace of 2.9% in 2016Q3. Unemployment currently is a low 5.0% of
the work force, after peaking in Oct. 2009 at 10.0% at the end of the Great
Recession. Since the end of the recession the US economy has added 15.1 million
jobs. Median household income finally rose 4% in 2015 to $55,775 from $53,482
in 2014 (shown in the table) after declining for almost a decade. But between
2010 and 2013, per capita GDP grew an anemic 1.2%, reflecting the lingering
effects of the recession.
From a climate perspective, the average annual national temperature in
2015, 54.4F, was the second warmest on record since weather records began being
collected 121 years ago in 1895.
Before examining each state individually, I explore their vibrancy
and educational attainment.
State
Vibrancy. The dictionary defines
vibrancy as having or showing great life, activity, and energy. Here, I gage a
state’s vibrancy as a combination of having a youth-full population, measured
by lower median age, a high proportion of millennials and high state GDP and
GDP growth. Using each state’s ranking in these 4 factors, I created my modestly-fashioned
Vibrancy Index (VI) for each of the 6 states. The higher the value of this
index, with a maximum of 100, the more vibrant is the state. The more vibrant
it is, the brighter the state’s future can be.
The most vibrant state is Utah (VI=100), which has the largest
millennial population share in the US and the second lowest median age; California
(98) closely follows Utah’s vibrancy; Kansas (84) is a somewhat surprising
third; Mississippi (69); Pennsylvania (52) and Maine (11) significantly trails
the rest as the least vibrant state of my 6 states. Maine has the nation’s most
advanced median age and the smallest proportion of millennials of any of the 50
states.
College
Education. During this election
season a high degree of media attention has been focused on voters’ education
levels, particularly whether they have a baccalaureate (BA) degree or not. The
talking heads apparently have decided that having a BA (or not) can explain a
lot of folks’ voting preferences. Perhaps, but probably not. It’s an
interesting dichotomy, but I doubt it has much causal/explanatory power. I
won’t bother to delve into the clear post hoc ergo
propter hoc issues behind this association.
The 1996 presidential election’s media magic of “soccer moms” as a
meme has evolved this year into one’s level of educational attainment. It’s one
of the most cited voter characteristics of current political insight.
So how do my 6 states rank with respect to college degree realization?
Except for Mississippi, these states’ tertiary education attainment is fairly
comparable. California, Kansas and Utah each have the highest percentage of
residents with a BA or graduate degree, over 30% attainment. California has the
highest national rank of any of these states at 14th highest, with Utah close
behind at 19th. Maine’s and Pennsylvania’s degree attainment, at 28%, is marginally
lower but comparable with the national rate. Mississippi, however, is the odd
state out, with a much lower tertiary education rate, 20.4%, than the other 5
states, that’s practically 9 percentage points less than the national average
and ranked 48th.
Individual
States’ Characteristics. Let’s
now look at each of the states, starting with California and heading east. Table 2 reports the state-by-state values of the same traits that
were shown above in Table 1 for the entire US.
Table
2: Demographic and Economic Characteristics of Selected States:
Characteristic
|
Maine
|
Pennsylvania
|
Kansas
|
Mississippi
|
Utah
|
California
|
Population (millions)
|
1.33 (42)*
|
12.8 (6)
|
2.91 (34)
|
2.99 (32)
|
2.99 (31)
|
39.1 (1)
|
Population
growth rate (2010-15)
|
0.1%
|
0.8%
|
2.1%
|
0.8%
|
8.4%
|
5.1%
|
GDP (billions)
with comparable nation
|
$55.1 (44) Luxembourg
|
$677.6 (6) Switzerland
|
$146.2 (32) Kuwait
|
$106.9 (36) Angola
|
$146.7 (31) Hungary
|
$2,424 (1) France
|
Per Capita GDP growth (2010-13)
|
0.4% (42)
|
1.2% (26)
|
1.9% (16)
|
1.1% (27)
|
2.0% (12)
|
0.8% (34)
|
Median
Household Income
|
$48,804 (32)
|
$53,115 (23)
|
$51,872 (26)
|
$39,464 (50)
|
$59,846 (14)
|
$61,489 (3)
|
Median age (years)
|
44.1 (1)
|
40.7 (6)
|
36.2 (41)
|
36.7 (36)
|
30.5 (51)
|
36.0 (45)
|
Life
expectancy
(yrs.)
|
79.2 (23)
|
78.5 (28)
|
78.7 (27)
|
75.0 (51)
|
80.2 (10)
|
80.8 (4)
|
Millennials
|
23.8% (51)
|
16.2% (43)
|
28.2% (9)
|
18.1 (10)
|
32% (2)
|
29% (6)
|
Gen X
|
19.4% (45)
|
19.6% (41)
|
19.5% (44)
|
20.1% (28)
|
21% (15)
|
21.8% (5)
|
Baby Boomers
|
29.7% (1)
|
26.7% (7)
|
24.3% (42)
|
24.3% (41)
|
18.6% (51)
|
23.4% (47)
|
Silent Gen
|
13.3% (3)
|
12.2% (5)
|
10.4% (37)
|
10.8% (32)
|
7.5% (50)
|
9.4% (45)
|
Pop: White /
Hispanic / Black (%)
|
93.6/1.6/1.4
|
77.4/6.8/11.6
|
76.4/11.6/6.3
|
57/3.1/37.6
|
79/13.7/1.3
|
38/37.6/6.5
|
Poverty Rate
|
13.4%
|
13.2%
|
13.0%
|
22.0%
|
11.3%
|
15.3%
|
Fertility
rate
|
1.66 (45)
|
1.76 (42)
|
2.05 (8)
|
1.89 (21)
|
2.33 (1)
|
1.84 (29)
|
BA or higher
degree
|
28.4% (23)
|
28.1% (26)
|
30.7% (16)
|
20.4% (48)
|
30.6% (19)
|
31.0% (14)
|
Average
Temperature
(degrees F)
|
41.0 (48)**
|
48.8 (30)
|
54.3 (19)
|
63.4 (6)
|
48.6 (32)
|
59.4 (12)
|
Source:
US Census, Governing.com, Wikipedia. * Rank by state, in parentheses, includes
Washington DC. ** Rank by warmest temperature.
I’ll examine each of these states, from sunset to sunrise, west to east,
California. California has the largest population, more
than 39 million residents, of any state. Although its average temperature, 59.4F,
is ranked 12th warmest, Death Valley maintains its record as the very hottest
spot (ever) on Earth with a 134F temperature on Sep 13, 1922. Baby, that’s really hot outside. At Furnace Creek in
toasty Death Valley, the thermometer regularly rises above 120F on 5 to 20 days
a year. Make sure you bring lots of
water.
The Golden State’s economic activity also is the largest in the nation, $2.4
trillion, about as sizable as France, the sixth internationally-ranked nation. For
many decades, California has enjoyed a strong influence on American
culture and commerce. Wikipedia lists more than 500 popular songs
that are “about California.” Despite its only being the 24th least-flat (aka, mountainous)
state, two California valleys are known across the globe: Silicon and Yosemite.
In California just 2.2% of its labor force works in agriculture,
reflecting the significant degree of technology, mechanization and automation
now present in its fields. Notwithstanding the small proportion of laborers, California’s
agricultural output is ranked highest
of any state, $50.2 billion (B). Dairy products have the highest value ($7.6B),
followed by almonds and grapes. California produces two-thirds of the nation’s
fruits and nuts.
After WWII, California pioneered high-quality, publicly-funded college/university
education with its famed University of California, California State University and
community college systems that now have 146 campuses throughout the state. Thirty-one
percent of the state’s residents have a BA or higher, ranked 14th in the nation
and the highest of the 6 states I’m looking at.
Its median age, 30.4 years, is ranked sixth youngest; its median
household income is the third largest in the US and the third fastest-growing. California’s
racial/ethnic composition has no majority group and is unique with its balance
between white (38%), Hispanic (37.6%) and black people (6.5%). At 15.3% its
poverty rate is higher than the national rate. Its fertility rate is ranked 29th
among states. California’s population also tilts young with the sixth-highest
share of millennials and fifth highest share of Gen Xers, together with a lot of
boomers.
Overall, California’s destiny appears sunny. Its population is
fairly young, diverse, growing, educated and productive.
Utah. The Beehive State has much different
demographics than my other 5 states. Most of Utah’s demographics are coupled with
the prevalence of the Mormon Church. Sixty percent of Utahans are members of
the Church of Jesus Christ of the Latter Day Saints. In contrast, about one-third to 40% of
Salt Lake City residents, Utah’s largest city, are members of the Mormon
Church.
Utah’s population is comparable to Mississippi, but its population
growth rate is practically 10 times higher. Utah’s fertility rate, 2.33
children per woman, is the highest of any state. Its median age is the lowest of
any state, 30.5 years. Its young population is reflected generationally. Utah
has the 2nd highest proportion of millennials, the lowest proportion of baby
boomers and second lowest share of silent generation members of any state.
Almost four-fifths of Utahans are whites and dominate the culture of
the state. Curiously, Utah’s average temperature places it on a par with far-away
Pennsylvania’s. Its level of tertiary education accomplishment, 30.6%, ranks high
in the second quartile of all states.
Utah’s economic characteristics also reflect strong growth. Its
GDP is ranked in the second quartile and comparable to Hungary’s; its per
capita GDP growth of 2% places it in the top quartile of states, and the
highest of my 6 states. In sum, Utah is a youthful, fast-growing state
economically and demographically; its destiny seems bright.
Kansas. Kansas is one of the rectangular states that fill up a lot of the great middle of America, west of the
Mississippi River. It has a middle-sized population – 2.9 million people,
ranked 34th – that has a healthy growth rate. Its GDP is $146 billion, ranked
32nd, is comparable to that of Kuwait (who’d of guessed). Kansas’ per capita
GDP growth is quite strong, ranking 16th.
Kansas does agriculture. It is ranked 7th among states’
agriculture revenue. About 17% of the Kansas labor force is directly employed
by agriculture, 8 times greater than the US average. Kansas grows a lot of
grains and cattle. It accounts 11% of the cattle/calves produced, 14% of the
wheat and 43% of the sorghum grown
in the US. [In case you don’t know, grain sorghum is used in the production of alcoholic
beverages and biofuels, as well as animal feed.]
The Sunflower State’s population and its per capita GDP show
fairly robust growth. Kansas’ median age is ranked in the youngest quartile of
states. The racial/ethnic composition of Kansas residents is similar to Pennsylvania’s
but the Hispanic and black splits are reversed, with nearly twice as many
Hispanics as black denizens. Kansas adults have the 16th highest rate of
tertiary education attainment in the US.
Finally, I now dispel the widely-held notion that Kansas is as
flat as a billiard table. Nope; Kansas topography displays attractive rolling hills
and shallow valleys. It’s true that the high point of Kansas, Mt.
Sunflower, is a mere 4,039 feet at its summit, and but 679 ft. above the
state’s lowest point. Nevertheless according to the National Geographic, Kansas
isn’t that close to being the flattest state. That honor goes to Florida. In
fact, Kansas is the 7th
flattest state in the US. As long as I’m talking topography, and looking
more upward to the sky, which state is the least flat in the contiguous 48
states? See this footnote for the surprising answer.[1]
Mississippi. Mississippi has defined the Deep South for
generations. Its $107 billion GDP and 3 million person population have grown
moderately. It has the second-highest fertility rate of any state I examined
here. The population’s racial/ethnic composition is distinct from the 5 other
states; white people represent 57% of the state’s population, black residents
more than 37%, Hispanics just 3%. The Magnolia State’s average temperature is
the 6th warmest of any state.
Mississippi’s number one industry is agriculture. The top crops
are cotton, soybeans and rice. About 30% of its labor force works in ag, which
is the same proportion of farm workers the entire US had in 1910.
Its economic circumstances are quite different than the other
states; median household income is ranked 50th and last in the US; its poverty
rate is over 60% higher than the national average. The percent of Mississippi
adults with a BA is ranked 48th. This state’s demographic and economic destiny
seems to be a struggle with the changing realities of the 21st century.
Pennsylvania. The Keystone State has the 6th largest
population, 12.8 million people. Its residents produce almost $678 billion of
goods and services – the 6th largest state GDP in the nation – comparable to
that of Switzerland. I grew up in the Philadelphia metropolitan area, the
largest in the state. It never felt like Switzerland to me, although the Swiss
average temperature (42.5F) is but 6 degrees cooler than Pennsylvania’s. The
state’s median household income ranks in the second quartile of states.
Pennsylvania’s slow-growing population skews older and whiter,
having relatively few millennials and Gen Xers and an abundance of boomers and
silent generation. Pennsylvania residents’ racial/ethnic composition is
somewhat more balanced than Maine’s, and whites account for over three-quarters
of its population. Its median age of 40.7 years is the 6th oldest in the nation;
its fertility rate is marginally higher than Maine’s and still below the
replacement rate. Pennsylvania’s poverty rate – 13.2% - is very close to the
national rate. College graduates
represent virtually the same percentage of adults as in Maine, and comparable
to the national rate.
Pennsylvania’s demographic destiny is a bit brighter than Maine’s,
however it too needs to find a demographic source of growth to make its future
sustainably more positive.
Maine. As its nickname - the Pine Tree State - implies,
Maine is wooded with lots of Pines and other trees, covering about 90% of the
state, the most of any state. Maine is thus a seriously forested and mostly rural
state. Maine’s economic output and population are small and growing sluggishly.
It has one major urban area, Portland (population 204,000). Maine’s relatively
small population – 1.33 million, ranked 42nd – is overwhelmingly white (93.6%),
with very small numbers of Hispanic and black residents. It has the fewest
young millennials and the most ever more mature baby boomers of any state. It
also has the largest (proportional) number of 65+ year olds in the nation. At
1.66 children per woman, Maine is in the fertility rate basement; its
population growth is a torpid 0.1%. Maine’s indigenous population
does not
even produce enough high-school graduates to fill the classrooms at the
University of Maine. Maine’s median household income ranks in
the third quartile of states. Its per capita GDP growth is weak, ranked 42nd of
all the states.
Although unsurprising given its northern setting, Maine has the 48th
lowest average temperature, 41.0F. Brrrr. Besides its scenic forests and lakes,
it boasts 228 miles of Atlantic Ocean coastline and enjoys a well-deserved
reputation as a vacationland destination. Although the American dawn’s early
light first shines on Maine as the country’s eastern-most state, if
demographics is destiny, Maine’s prospects appear unsunny. Unless it can attract
a growing number of younger residents, Maine’s demographic and economic prospects
are likely to be dimming.
So there you have it; 6 diverse, far-flung states that illustrate
the underlying strengths and challenges that the US faces demographically,
socially and economically. No single policy can promote security and achievement
for these 6 (or our entire 50) states’ futures. But realizing that our states’
individually-distinct characteristics can serve to strengthen our future accomplishments
will be an important, necessary and initial step for success.
