Mirror, mirror on the wall, who's the fairest of all? ~
The Wicked Queen in Snow White
As 2010 draws to a close, I find myself reflecting on mirrors. As objects of reflective self-admiration (or loathing – see Wicked Queen), mirrors have existed since ancient times. Obsidian mirrors from 6000BC have been found in Anatolia (Turkey); metal-coated mirrors were invented in Sidon (Lebanon) during the 1st century AD; China made silver-mercury mirrors as early as 500AD. And Venice became a center of mirror-making with tin-mercury by the 16th century.
In centuries past, national mirrors reflecting the "fairest nation of all" have shown Britain and France and at other times Germany and France vying for European predominance. Greece and Rome and later the Danes/Norse contended for domination farther long ago. For many reasons, in times gone by it was exceedingly uncommon for one nation to solely be the fairest of all for very long. Most often, several nations actively sought and competed for this position.
The US has been this quite atypical fairest of all nations – certainly in terms of economic and military authority – for practically three generations. It is rare that one nation can rise to the heights of regional-continental-global supremacy and remain unchallenged for any long time. I think the US is collectively beginning to realize this historic run of lone fairest one may be concluding. And unsurprisingly it is most unsettling since we've had a reasonably good course of superpower supremacy since the end of WWII and more so since the USSR began its collapse in mid-1980's and dissolved in 1991. There is now at least one new kid on the global block for the US to deal with substantively; not yet as an equal, but as a new entrant in the realm of powerful nations.
This entrant for international authority sweepstakes is the People's Republic of China. As more and more people know, over the past five years, China has grown significantly in both economic and political terms. Its economy overtook Japan's last year to become the second largest in the world, after the US. [China's GDP is now about 1/3 as large as ours.] In many strategic areas, the era of the US being the sole global superpower probably is drawing to an end. In other words, the world is moving back to the long-established norm of multiple nations vying for preeminence. Using the mirror analogy I've adopted here, during the past several decades when the US asked the mirror on the wall the Wicked Queen's famous question, it was invariably answered, "It is you, oh mighty United States." Over the past several years, the mirror's answer probably shows another now-visually smaller nation racing forward, China fast approaching the fairest one – the US.
It's useful to be clear about just how "fair" China is at this point. Despite rising anxiety from certain groups in the US like the military (which is always fearful of some other nation having more of something, like missiles or whatever) or traditionalist conservatives (who want the clocks to somehow stop ticking say in 2006 to forever preserve our sole superpower status), I don't believe China is anywhere near to being the fairest one at this point. Although we're no longer the undisputed, solitary fairest one, we're not close to losing our fairest crown. [If you sort nations by a composite ranking of their GDP, their GDP/capita, and their Human Development Index – calculated by the United Nations Development Programme – the US remains the fairest of all by a considerable margin. China is way down the list, below Canada, South Korea, Mexico and Brazil, among other nations.]
However, the US and China offer an interesting mirror image of each other, in terms of how the economy of each could adapt in the near future. In the US, to grow out of our "great recession" we should increase our domestic investment (about 15% of our GDP), tone down our fixation on consumption (about 70% of GDP), and increase exports. China, on the other hand could enhance its long-term growth by doing the following (this according to Western economic thinking): re-prioritize its fixation on domestic investment (about 50% of its GDP) towards consumption (about 35% of GDP); increase its imports (hopefully including from Western producers like the US) and reduce its obsession on exports. Although there are a multitude of genuine differences between China and the US, these prescriptive changes are almost mirror images of one another.
The US's position as no longer the solitary fairest one is perhaps a bit like being a first-born child and then being confronted by the subsequent birth of a sister or brother – at a rather fundamental level your world has significantly changed since undivided parental attention is no longer in the cards. Some first-borns deal with this better than others. Going way beyond an individual family situation, to a "national family," I liken my Baby Boomer generation as now having to deal with a new, fast-growing and demanding sibling of sorts – China. Unsurprisingly, we don't like this recent international addition; just as we don't like our own Gen Xers and Gen Yers coming into their own as we Boomers start heading for the retirement sidelines. The clock keeps ticking...
Throughout our lives we Boomers have enjoyed the historically unique advantage of growing up and living in a nation that's been always recognized as a world superpower, and since the latter 1980's as the world superpower. We almost take it as a birthright that the US is always to be numero uno – fairest of all – since that's the way it's been for quite a while.
I think a fair amount of our anguish-anxiety-worry-fear about China's entrance into the "fairest" sweepstakes is simply that we've not experienced such competition for so long. From the US's parochial perspective, this rivalry is unnatural – why can't it just be the way it was before; say when China was inward-focused during its chaotic Cultural Revolution and the Berlin Wall had fallen? Because the world, China and we have changed significantly since the late 1970's. And on balance, this change has been for the better.
The sooner we citizens of the US realize our historically unique era as sole superpower is changing – as is inevitable – the sooner we can be successful in competing with the new kids on the block – like China – in a meaningful and successful way that can further improve our lives. Defensively wishing for the past will not realize this success; building on our strengths will. These significant strengths include our long record of successful technological innovation, investing wisely in strengthening our physical and human capital, and harnessing our diverse talents, perspectives and effort towards achievement of the seemingly impossible.
By employing and fortifying our strengths as we have time and time again, we will still be satisfied with the mirror's answer when we ask it in the future, who's the fairest of all?
