Not voting is not a protest. It’s a surrender. ~ Keith Ellison
With 36 days until the
presidential election, the media is having a field day talking about what it
considers will be important groups of potential voters that can surely swing
local and national election results. Here are several of the media’s “pivotal
groups” for the election I have come across.
First, Omaha Nebraska may find
itself at the “the center of the election,” at least momentarily. How could
this be? Omaha is the nation’s 42nd largest city in a steadfastly Republican
red state. Because like Maine, the Cornhusker State allocates its Electoral
College votes in part by Congressional District, and not the winner-take-all
method used by each of the other 48 states.
According to one account, Nebraska’s single electoral vote from its 2nd Congressional District (CD)[1] (encompassing Omaha) that President Biden won in 2020, could prove vital for VP Harris this November. Because the media has been offering a steady panoply of presidential election possibilities during the ever-shrinking pre-election period, Omaha has captured a fleeting political focal point. Nevertheless, the potential presidential electoral importance of Nebraska’s presidential electoral vote from its 2nd CD of will depend on complex, faintly possible multi-state voting outcomes, starting with VP Harris actually winning this 2nd CD delegate election, to really happen.
Next, a recent news story
carried this headline, “Young voters play potentially decisive role in 2024
election.” The crucial phrase in this headline is “potentially decisive.” Another
story
also attempts to tell a convincing tale that young, college-age people may have
a pivotal role in the next election. Ah, youth.
Younger voters have played a role
in every US election since 1972, just like other voters. This has been true
ever since the government reduced the required minimum voting age from 21 years
to 18 years via the 26th Constitutional Amendment that was ratified
in 1971. Those were the days.
Regarding our up-coming election,
a new poll showed Harris leading Trump by a margin of 32% among likely
young voters. That’s a startling and impressive margin. Yet another recent poll
of younger voters for CNN found that Harris is preferred over Trump by just 12%
of this sample, which if sustained on election day could be a problem for VP
Harris. These 2 polls’ quite divergent margins reconfirms my view that whatever
result you believe in, you can find at least one of the myriad of available polls
that supports it.
Another hopeful story about
youthful voters stated that young
voters could have a monumental impact on the presidential
contest. Nationwide, nearly 42 million 18-to-27-year-olds, the group known as
Generation Z, will now be eligible to vote. Some observers say colleges have
become more important than in past elections, with campuses hosting more
voter-registration drives, debate watch parties and panel discussions designed
to urge students to vote. Encouraging anyone, including young people, to vote
is always a worthy cause.
For additional perspective, there
are nearly 58 million adults age 65 and older in the US, virtually all of whom
are eligible to vote. In terms of actual election results, every segment of the
voting population can be potentially decisive. Despite the media’s recent zeal,
youth voters have never been judged decisive in a presidential election’s
outcome. There’s one reason: youth voters habitually have the highest rate
of non-voting. Thus, despite the current media attention, I doubt young
voters will play a decisive role in the 2024 election. They simply have routinely
not voted in sufficient numbers, compared to other age groups, especially
“seniors.”
The youngest-aged people only vote
one-third as much as older people (10% vs. 34%, in 2022 according to Pew).
Despite substantial efforts to get them to vote, young voters do not vote twice
as often as older folks (13% vs. 27% in 2022).
Will youth voters have a monumental
impact on November 5’s election, as some suggest? That’s highly unlikely. The
above-mentioned slender numbers from Pew regarding people aged 18-26 years who
voted are not encouraging. In 2022, they represented the lowest age-share of
any voter group and the second highest age-share of nonvoters.
Like other age groups, youth did vote
much more in our 2020 presidential election (rather than during the 2022
mid-term election). In the last presidential election 51.4% of youth (18-24
years) voted, according to the Census.
But even this one-out-of-two youth’s voting represented the lowest
voter participation rate across all ages. This analysis
confirms that young people have been consistently least likely to vote in every
national election since 1980.
Perhaps on November 5 youth-oriented pro-voting efforts can prove successful. College campuses are hosting more voter-registration drives and other activities. I certainly hope such efforts are fruitful, given that young folks’ proclivity to vote has heretofore been frail. But based on history, I lament that these sizeable efforts (including Taylor Swift’s recent endorsement of Kamala) will unfortunately be for naught in encouraging young folks to vote.
The Pew research shows that the
fraction of 18-29 year-olds who voted declined to 10% in our most-recent 2022
elections. That’s the smallest proportion of any voter age group, despite
substantial get out the vote efforts by both parties. This November I expect voting
throughout the US will be accomplished with diminutive numbers of young voters
and far larger numbers of older folks, which honestly I am more comfortable with. Youth is great; and a broader set of life experiences is better as a foundation for voting. Once again, youth voters will likely
have neither a monumental or decisive effect on this election’s outcome.
My desire is that plenty of youthful
voters, along with your, my and everyone else’s electoral support, will help ensure
the vice president’s hopeful victory.
Onward in Democracy for Omaha and
beyond.
[1] Nebraska’s
2nd Congressional District seat is now occupied by Representative Don
Bacon, a Republican, who will be competing with Democrat Tony Vargas in
November’s election.
