During the past week Pacific Gas
& Electric Co. (PG&E) has again turned off the electricity for millions
of its customers, including me.
I spent much of my professional
career analyzing the electric power industry. When I was writing my doctoral
dissertation about the industry’s dynamic performance I learned
that in the 1950s and 1960s electric utilities were promoting their services as
the most reliable form of energy. Their promotions were helped by Reddy
Kilowatt, shown below, who was the utilities’ mascot and marketer. The industry
claimed their customers were receiving kilowatt-hours (kWh) 98+% of the time. That’s
an impressive number. Lesser-developed nations – aka, “the third world” – had
far less reliable electricity distribution systems. We were king of the kWh mountain.
Reddy Kilowatt
This remains true on a national
basis. According to the US Energy Information Administration, the average US
utility customer in 2017 experienced 1.4 interruptions including those caused
by major events like hurricanes, tornados, winter storms (and firestorms).
These interruptions averaged 7.8 hours (470 minutes). In contrast, Bangladeshi electricity
customers experience a power outage in 249 days per year!
But guess what. This past week I
and 2.8 million other Northern and Central Californians experienced our second,
much longer period of widespread intentional electricity shut-offs “in the
interest of public safety” due to strong, gusty winds and high fire danger.
These winds are called Diablo
winds in the Bay Area and Santa Ana winds in Southern California. The dry,
offshore winds blow every Spring and Fall due to weather patterns that have
existed for millennia. They are not new news at all; Diablo and Santa Ana winds happen every Fall. They are always most dangerous in the Fall, when
vegetation is driest.
For Berkleyans like me this shut
off lasted for 42 hours. I was using a headlamp and lanterns in our dark,
un-electrified home, and buying bags of ice to supplement our non-functioning
refrigerator. My suitcase was packed in case I had to evacuate. The idea of
98+% reliability was pretense. These episodes reminded me of how much we take
for granted the full-time availability of electricity. Hordes of Californians
are still without electricity.
As PG&E has descended into
bankruptcy, it has stunningly mismanaged its operations, its facilities and its
customers. During our Fall Diablo-wind season, which happens every September to November,
one portion of the third world is now visiting many in Berkeley and the rest of
California: complete darkness after sunset. It’s not quaint.
Many folks here offer genuine
feelings of endearment and support for the plight of third-world denizens. But
in Berkeley, no one is happy when PG&E seems as unreliable as some utility across
an ocean. Where’s Reddy Kilowatt when we want him? Our situation is not nearly as
bad as in Pakistan, where customers endure with an average of 75 power outages
per month. Nevertheless it’s still quite upsetting, as has been clearly
illustrated in social media. When the
winds blow, PG&E’s strategy of re-booting my and others’ electricity multiple
times seems neither effective nor smart. But if you’re stuck with only a
sledgehammer, everything looks like a formidable railroad spike.
Besides complaining, what can be
done to avoid darkened lightbulbs and warming refrigerators in homes and
businesses? There are two much-discussed technical possibilities;
undergrounding lower-voltage (<34kV) electric distribution lines and
microgrids. Each has promise and problems.
First, undergrounding. For
decades, electric utilities have undergrounded their distribution lines in
cities and urban areas. There are several advantages beyond the straightforward
aesthetic elimination of ugly power poles carrying overhead lines. Underground
lines are less subject to damage from severe weather conditions –lightning, freezing,
hurricanes, tornados and other winds (like Diablos, Santa Anas and Siroccos). And
perhaps more important for our part of the country, underground power lines
provide decreased risk of fire. Overhead power lines can draw high fault
currents from vegetation-to-conductor or conductor-to-ground contact, which
result in large, hot arcs that can start fires like we experience every Falls-worth of Diablo/Santa Ana
winds.
A significant disadvantage is that
undergrounding is costly. A recent article
in the NYTimes was written by Ms. Carine Hines who co-owns a farm in rural
Yolo County, west of Sacramento. She, like many of us, was dealing with
PG&E’s shut-offs. She believes “the most obvious solution” would be for the
utility to underground its electric lines in rural areas like Yolo County.
It may be obvious, but it’s pretty expensive. The life-cycle cost
of an underground distribution power cable can be two to four times larger the
cost of an overhead power line. Higher-voltage underground power lines cost
proportionately more. Is Ms. Hines ready to pay a substantial premium for the
safety of her undergrounded electric lines? In our age of seemingly unlimited “free”
stuff, I have my doubts.
Another disadvantage is that underground
power cables are more subject to damage by ground movement – like earthquakes.
The Capay Valley, where her farm is located, is riddled with nearby earthquake
faults like many other places in California, including Berkeley. Two fault
systems near the Capay Valley are the Rogers Creek Fault Zone and the Concord–Green Valley Faults. Repairing overhead electric cable breaks can be
accomplished usually in hours; underground repairs can take days or weeks.
Second, microgrids. A microgrid
(also termed “distributed generation”) is a localized, small-scale assemblage
of electricity generation, low-voltage distribution and customer electric loads.
Microgrids often operate connected to a traditional, centralized macrogrid. A
single point of common coupling with the macrogrid can be disconnected, if need
be. The microgrid can then function autonomously and thus strengthen grid
resilience, and help mitigate centralized grid disruptions. If Berkeley had a
functioning microgrid last week, it is likely our home wouldn’t have been
darkened.
Creating systematic microgrids for
PG&E’s entire 70,000 square mile service territory – from Eureka to
Bakersfield – would require a major, pricey redesign of our centralized generation,
transmission and distribution system.
Microgrid designs heavily depend on
specific local conditions and defy cost generalizations. Microgrid experts have
seen cost proposals as low as $250,000 to as high as $100 million. Local
generating capacity typically accounts for most of the cost. Would the City of Berkeley consent to siting a local
generation facility for its microgrid? Not likely, given its commitment to be
carbon-neutral by 2045, and having no space for solar or wind power facilities (that
will require additional off-peak backup power). I wonder how the City’s 2030 plan
to be a Fossil Fuel Free city and become a net carbon sink will work when there
may be no consistent, uninterrupted source of kWhs for all Berkeleyans and
their mandated EVs.
How many microgrids exist in the US? They now represent under 0.2% of the
nation’s overall generating capacity. Most microgrids are unconnected to a
centralized grid and serve industrial facilities. Nevertheless, interest in
microgrids is growing; and clearly there’s a lot of room for growth. Like
undergrounding, there’s no agreement about how the considerable extra costs of
designing and installing microgrids can be allocated among beneficiaries.
What can be done to avoid defensive power shut-downs in California? Shut-downs
will certainly be in our future because the Diablo/Santa Ana winds will continue
to blow. Depressingly, no one really knows what to do; ignorance reigns. Governor
Gavin Newsom has expressed interest in Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway
making a bid for PG&E. This is Gavin’s empty-winded political doggerel. Is
that all he’s come up with? OMG.
The legislature isn’t in session now, so no insightful words of wisdom
are forthcoming. Although if it was in session, I’m not sure it would be any
different. The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC), the state’s
utility regulator, has yet to inspire any stakeholders that its providence
includes actual remedy. And PG&E? Surely, you jest. It’s the deserving,
convenient scoundrel for public leaders to heap accusations upon. But these
same leaders haven’t bothered to state what they believe actually needs to be
done to solve California’s electricity/wildfire calamity.
So for the near future, I’m keeping my bag packed,
headlamp and lanterns ready and ice-chest filled. The “third world’s”
electricity availability could be staying here at least until the first rain
storms miraculously appear from the Pacific.
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