BUILDING BRIDGES TO NORMALCY

Bridges are the most invisible form of public architecture. ~ Bruce Jackson 

Hurray for Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff in their victories last Tuesday. Their unexpected, hard-fought double triumphs mean the Dems’ will soon control of all three branches of the federal government – the House, the Senate and the White House.

The last time the Dems controlled the federal government was from 2009-2011, during the first two years of President Obama’s initial term. Their control was solid but not durable; it only lasted until January 2011. The Repubs swept control of the House with a massive net gain of 63 seats from the Dems in the Nov. 2010 mid-term elections.

As President, Joe Biden will need to rapidly build many bridges to navigate the rough road back to his and our ever-evolving vision of normalcy. That will be no mean feat necessitating focus and mastery. Such bridges have nothing to do with structural engineering, everything to do with civil engineering, with us civilians.

    Bixby Creek Bridge, Big Sur, CA

Undoubtedly, Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi have been closely working with soon-to-be President Joe Biden in how to most effectively use their power. Their unified control must be purposeful and directed so it might continue beyond 2022’s mid-term elections.

The Dems’ multi-faceted coalition creates challenges for President Biden and his stalwarts, even after winning both peachy Senate run-off contests. Early prognostication about the Dems’ dual victories cite massive Dem voter turnout as a principal factor. Truly impressive with giant thanks to folks like Stacey Abrams.

These victories now provide a 50-50 split between Dem and Repub senators that can and will be broken by Vice-President Kamala Harris’ tie-breaker vote as President of the Senate. She’ll likely be spending a fair amount of time at her Senate Dias.

This volatile 50-50 Senate equanimity has happened just three times in US history. Once in 1881, next in 1958 and most recently in 2001, during the George W. Bush administration.

Nineteen years ago, the Dems’ Senate leaders ultimately convinced Repub Senator James Jeffords (VT) to switch parties and become an Independent within the Dem caucus. The Dems’ enticed Sen. Jeffords by promising him the chairmanship of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee. Sen. Jeffords’ switch gave the Dems slender control of the Senate, 51-49. Praise be for a Machiavellian delight.

Despite the Dems’ incipient control, Prog legislatively-based nirvanic hopes will need to be reined in as a thoroughly unlikely prospect. Why? Because there will not be 50 Democratic senators who would vote for programs like Bernie Sanders’ essential ones (below). Except perhaps infrastructure expenditures, which although perennially popular are both notoriously difficult to enact and take a long time to effectuate (more than 24 months). Also, it’s likely that Repubs would not make up for any inevitable dearth of Dem votes on bills that can’t satisfy every single Dem.

Strongly liberal Progressives should glide down out of campaigning’s stratosphere where everything is verbally possible (e.g., passing Bernie’s seven Essential Programs) and return to the grounded nitty-gritty political reality of having a slim one-vote margin of control in the Senate.

Joe Biden’s Key Campaign Programs	Bernie Sanders’ Essential Programs
Economic Stimulus (ver. 3)	Medicare for All
Healthcare Reform	Social Security Expansion
Climate/Environment Improvement	12-week Parental and Medical Leave
K-12 Education	$15/hr. Guaranteed Federal Jobs
Higher Education	New Infrastructure
Housing	Free College
	Student Debt Cancellation
Est’d Cost: $7.7 trillion	Est’d Cost: $42.5 trillion

     In order to achieve any satisfactory accomplishments, President Biden must choose what program of his key ones he will commit to as tippy-top importance and become law of the land during his first 100 days. This sounds straightforward. The only impossible thing is how to make such a choice. For President Biden the choice is made that much more challenging because of sky-high expectations for his nascent administration.

Governing isn’t at all the same as campaigning. It’s always easier to create a comprehensively long to-do list as a platform; the above table is Exhibit A. That really is what campaigning thrives on. It’s far trickier and consequential to state what should be postponed or, oh my goodness, not acted upon when in office.

My bet is President Biden will first push hard for a third stimulus package including vaccinations, as numero uno. This stimulus, perhaps $2T, should wisely emphasize benefits for folks in real need, not those making $100k/yr.; and somehow keep the bridges to nowhere totally unbuilt. Maybe by limiting the bill to no more than 810 pages? What comes afterwards will involve a slugfest.

The new president’s now-narrower majority in the House (11 votes) and slimmest of majorities in the Senate (1 vote), will require considerable dexterity and discipline to get any legislation passed by Congress. The Dems Senate caucus cannot afford any of its members to stray, which has always been a trying task.

The 50-50 Senate balance will provide potential leverage to individual Dem senators to demand accommodation on particulars of an important Senate bill to ensure their vote. Give and take on any evolving piece of legislation is a given. How effective such demands might be will depend on the skills of Sen. Schumer and his likely Whip, Sen. Richard Durbin. Sen. Durbin’s life on The Hill will be worthy of many Xanax on an all too regular basis because getting to 51 is going to be an on-going challenge.

Another Dem possibility would be to pursue what they accomplished in 2001 when the Senate last enjoyed an unnatural 50-50 vote split. If they haven’t already, newly-Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Sen. Durbin should focus on convincing at least one Repub Senator to emulate Sen. Jeffords’ switch to Independence.

Could political lightning strike again in the Senate? Perhaps, with phone calls and masked meetings with the Senate Majority leaders with Repub senators like Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski or perhaps Mitt Romney. Such a switch might take advantage of the public’s outrage at Repubs for the Trumpian mobs’ insidious storming of the Capitol. Not being a Repub suddenly has much more potential value, especially when it comes with side benefits like a committee chairpersonship. Niccolò would be pleased. An additional vote or two would become a valued insurance policy for President Biden’s legislative hopes.

Nevertheless, with 51 votes the Dems can confirm Joe’s nominees for Cabinet positions, for federal judgeships and even for a seat on the Supreme Court should one unexpectedly become open.

The Dems now must also plan to use the legislative “reconciliation” budgetary mechanism to pass certain legislation. Reconciliation can only be applied to a bill if it’s related to revenue, spending or the national debt limit. Reconciliation allows the Senate to pass legislation with just 51 votes, because it’s not subject to filibuster rules that that require 60 votes for passage. That’s nine (9) more than they now have.

But reconciliation limits the number of bills that can be passed in each area and cannot be used to pass legislation unrelated to the three areas. Giving Dreamers a path to citizenship, or creating a public option within Medicare would not likely pass strict reconciliation criteria.

Alternatively, President Biden will certainly use his powers to make executive policy changes via the Executive Order (EO) procedure. In spite of his past criticism of #45s expansive use of them, he will also be signing his own EOs after Jan. 20th. Perhaps the Dreamers will realize citizenship through an executed EO, rather than a signed piece of legislation. Joe will be quite busy signing EOs, as well as initiating a Dept. of Justice investigation into how #45 should be charged with sedition. Just a thought.

Here’s deeply hoping President Biden’s Inauguration goes smoothly and the Capitol police will actually do their jobs this time. Goooo Joe!